The International Energy Agency’s “Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026” highlights that critical minerals have become central to energy, economic, and national security. While supply remains a concern, particularly for copper, the focus has shifted toward supply chain resilience and diversification. Prices for key minerals rebounded in 2025 and early 2026, driven by tight supply and new export controls. Although project pipelines have improved, structural imbalances persist, with refining capacity lagging behind mining. The report emphasizes that strategic stockpiles and diversified supply chains are essential for mitigating the economic risks of highly concentrated markets in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
The report notes that critical mineral prices experienced a significant rebound between January 2025 and April 2026 after a period of decline. Base metals like aluminium and copper saw price increases of one-third, with copper reaching record highs. Battery materials also recovered, with lithium prices more than doubling and cobalt rising by approximately 130%, largely due to export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Strategic minor minerals, including gallium and germanium, saw even sharper price surges, with tungsten prices increasing sixfold, reflecting the impact of new export controls and robust demand.
Supply chain concentration remains a critical challenge, with refining capacity for most minerals becoming more concentrated in 2025, rare earths being a notable exception. Over the past two years, the top refining countries—Indonesia for nickel and China for other key energy minerals—accounted for more than three-quarters of the total growth in refined supply. Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72% in 2025. This high level of concentration has transformed theoretical vulnerabilities into immediate economic security challenges, as evidenced by export controls on rare earth elements and battery supply chain chokepoints.
The conflict in the Middle East has further underscored these vulnerabilities, impacting mineral and metal markets through the disruption of trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz. This has particularly affected aluminium, sulphur, and helium, with ripple effects increasing production costs for various critical minerals. In response, governments are increasingly deploying public finance to accelerate investment and reduce project risks. However, a structural imbalance remains in the project pipeline, where refining and downstream capacity are not keeping pace with mining development.
To address these risks, the report advocates for a holistic approach that includes strategic stockpiling, policy and market frameworks to support diversification, and investments in technology, equipment, and a skilled workforce. While diversified supply often comes at a higher cost, this “mineral security premium” is presented as a necessary form of economic insurance. Because critical minerals typically represent a small share of final product costs, the report suggests that these additional costs can be absorbed with limited impact on consumers, provided that governments, industry, and consumers work together to build more resilient and diversified supply chains.